If former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen runs in the next elections, his hypothetical party would not secure enough mandates to pass the electoral threshold, according to a new poll by Lazar Research that was conducted for Walla.

The survey was conducted on Sunday with a representative sample of 500 Israeli adults, including both Jewish and Arab respondents.

The poll found that Cohen's party would secure just four mandates. Three of those mandates would come from the Change Bloc, comprised of Naftali Bennett's New Right party, Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu. Cohen would also receive just one from Likud.

Even with his entry, the Change Bloc would retain a 62-seat parliamentary majority, excluding the Arab parties.

The poll found that Cohen, frequently mentioned as a potential prime ministerial candidate from the right wing, would only narrowly pass the electoral threshold.

Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu seen with then-Mossad director Yossi Cohen at the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem, Israel on October 15, 2015 (credit: MIRIAM ALSTER/FLASH90)
Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu seen with then-Mossad director Yossi Cohen at the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem, Israel on October 15, 2015 (credit: MIRIAM ALSTER/FLASH90)
Cohen confirmed that he is considering forming a new party on Channel 12 on Saturday. Although he kept a low profile during the war, he reportedly received offers from several parties to join them. In an interview with Yonit Levy and Jonathan Friedland, Cohen said, “I believe it’s not the time to replace the government, but after the war, ‘a big change is needed here.’”

Cohen, once considered a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has spent recent months supporting the families of hostages and defending their right to demonstrate. His name is often mentioned alongside other potential candidates, including Bennett, as someone who could shake up the electoral map.

What if Yossi Cohen decides not to run? 

If Cohen decides not to run, a party led by Bennett would win 27 mandates and lead a bloc of 65 seats—enough to form a coalition without the support of the Arab parties. Within that bloc, the Democrats under Yair Golan would secure 10 seats, the National Camp and Yisrael Beiteinu would each win nine, and Yesh Atid would take eight.

In contrast, Netanyahu’s bloc would win just 45 seats: 21 for Likud, nine for Shas, eight for Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, and seven for United Torah Judaism. Religious Zionism, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would not pass the electoral threshold in either scenario.

The survey also explored security and civil issues. It found that 61% of the public supports a plan to release all hostages in one move in exchange for ending the war and withdrawing from Gaza, while 24% oppose the plan and 15% are undecided. Among opposition voters, 79% back the plan; support among Arab party voters is even higher at 87%. Among voters for coalition parties, opinions are divided: 50% oppose the plan, while 38% support it.

The survey also asked about forming a government of change without Netanyahu, based on granting an exemption to drafting eligible haredi men. An overwhelming 78% of opposition bloc voters—including Bennett’s supporters—oppose such a move. Only 10% support it, and 12% are undecided.