Gaza winds of war are blowing, and Israel's hostages are in danger - analysis
Escalating the battle after 19 months of fighting, punctuated with a short ceasefire, is first and foremost an admission of failure.
The Iron Fist Brigade in the Rafah region in the Gaza Strip(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)ByMARK WEISSImmediately following the recent Independence Day, the IDF began mobilizing tens of thousands of reservists as part of a planned expansion of the ground offensive in the Gaza Strip.
According to a senior IDF source, the army was gearing up to launch the large-scale plan to defeat Hamas. “We are heading into a significant change in Gaza,” he said. “A broad-scale, decisive operation in large areas where we haven’t operated [previously], and the method will be different as well.”
It is anticipated that many of the reservists will not be deployed to Gaza but will instead replace troops from the standing army in the North and in Judea and Samaria so that they can join the fighting in Gaza.
The first brigades to receive call-up orders were the ones that will head north to relieve the standing army troops on the Lebanese and Syrian borders. For the ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, the IDF is planning to use mostly regular army units from the 36th Division that has already been fighting alongside the 164th Division deployed around the Gaza Strip, and some of whose units have been deployed inside Gaza, as well as troops from the 98th Division. The 252nd Division and the Gaza Division are already engaged in ground operations in Gaza.
Escalating the battle after 19 months of fighting, punctuated with a short ceasefire, is first and foremost an admission of failure.
Jerusalem Brigade forces operate in the northern Gaza Strip (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)Israel resumed military operations in mid-March after refusing to enter negotiations on the second stage of a ceasefire and hostage release deal and failing to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor that runs between Gaza and Egypt as required by the ceasefire agreement that brought a pause in the fighting.
Israel also clamped a blockade on Gaza, ending the daily delivery of humanitarian aid. However, the resumption of the fighting, combined with the blockade, failed to bring about the desired results. Hamas refused to accept a deal on Israel’s terms and continues to insist that it will only release the remaining hostages in return for a full IDF withdrawal, an end to the war, and guarantees from the mediators, primarily the US, that Israel will not resume hostilities in the future.
For more than 70 days, including 50 days of fighting, not a single hostage was released, despite the fact that Israeli soldiers captured close to 40% of Gaza territory, forced hundreds of thousands to again flee their homes, and took control of a new strip of land, the Morag Corridor, effectively cutting off Rafah from Khan Yunis.
But the new reality was one of stagnation, and once again Hamas succeeded in killing a number of soldiers. Commentators warned that what was happening was a repeat of the Lebanese quagmire, when troops were stuck in south Lebanon for 18 years, under constant attack from Hezbollah fighters.
But escalating the war is no simple matter. Hamas and the Islamic Jihad have been significantly degraded militarily since the October 7 attack but still have thousands of terrorists who have been planning for a fresh IDF onslaught. Many hundreds, if not thousands, of tunnel shafts remain, especially in northern Gaza beneath the rubble, and in the central refugee camps, some of which are booby-trapped or may have Hamas terrorists waiting in ambush.
A new Gaza offensive could harm the Gaza hostages
A new offensive will naturally require massive firepower, which could harm the hostages.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum issued the following statement: “We seek to wave a red flag. Expanding the warfare will put them in danger – stop this mistake. Israel is going to get mired in Gaza in the name of a delusion that any victory is achievable without bringing our brothers and sisters back from captivity.” That would be an enduring lamentable error,” according to the forum. “Expanding the warfare will jeopardize the hostages, the living and the dead alike; it will cost the lives of our soldiers, and it will exact a heavy price from tens of thousands of reservists and their families. We call on the Israeli government and the military commanders – stop this mistake. We have to produce an agreement that will bring them all back.”
Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is a hostage, accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of abandoning the hostages. “Every soldier who received an order again and is sent into battle, every mother who hugs her son a moment before, knows that this is not the way to rescue hostages. Military pressure will lead to the murder of my son,” she warned.
Yotam Cohen, whose brother Nimrod was seized from his tank and abducted into Gaza, said, “Military pressure has already led to the deaths of 41 hostages in captivity…Intensifying the war will not only kill the living hostages, but it will disappear the dead ones and turn all of them into Ron Arads,” – in a reference to Air Force officer Ron Arad, who was shot down in 1986 over Lebanon and held prisoner until his presumed death.
There is also the problem of motivation among some IDF reservists, many of whom have already spent hundreds of days in uniform since the October 7 attack, placing an unprecedented strain on family and workplace environments. Some units anticipated a refusal rate of 40% to 50%. Others reported soldiers willing to serve but over shorter periods, and not for months on end, meaning that two or three soldiers will share the reserve duty assigned to a single soldier.
Statements by some ministers prioritizing the defeat of Hamas over freeing the hostages have also been condemned by some reservists. “There are another up to 24 alive, 59 total, and we want to return the living and the dead. It’s a very important goal,” said Prime Minister Netanyahu, but then added, “The war has a supreme goal, and the supreme goal is victory over our enemies, and this we will achieve.” A few days earlier, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that “the hostages are not the most important thing” in the war effort.
Despite the comments by the politicians, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has said on a number of occasions that returning the hostages is his top priority. “Hamas is mistaken about our determination to return the hostages and defeat it. Both tasks involve each other. We will increase our activities until both tasks are completed,” Zamir said at a Remembrance Day ceremony.
Thousands of reservists from various units have signed letters calling on the government to end the Gaza war with an agreement that brings all the hostages home in a single release. Guy Porat, a former air force pilot and one of the people who started the pilots’ letter, said: “I represent some 1,200 air crew members who signed a manifesto stating: ‘We, reservist and retired air crews, demand the hostages be returned home without delay, even at the cost of ending the war immediately. At this time, the war serves primarily political and personal interests, not security interests. Continuing the war does not contribute to any of its avowed objectives, and is liable to lead to the deaths of hostages, of IDF troops, and innocent civilians.”
With food and medical supplies running dangerously low after the two-month blockade, the IDF is preparing to execute the plan that was approved by the prime minister and defense minister to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza by means of a civilian contractor. However, the number of trucks entering Gaza is expected to be significantly lower than the 650 trucks per day during the ceasefire. IDF Chief of Staff Zamir said that the aid would be sufficient to prevent the civilian population from starving so as to maintain Israel’s international legitimacy. But he made clear that he didn’t want the IDF to assume responsibility for aid deliveries, putting soldiers’ lives at risk.
There was some speculation that the call-up orders were primarily designed to exert additional pressure on Hamas to agree to a hostage release deal. In any event, an expanded military operation was not expected until US President Donald Trump completes his visit to Saudi Arabia in mid-May. ■
