Current projections indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would struggle to form a government if elections were held today, according to a Ma’ariv poll published Friday.

According to the survey, the current opposition parties would secure 61 seats, excluding the Arab parties, or 65 seats, including a party led by Naftali Bennett. In both scenarios, Netanyahu would fall short of a majority.

The survey found that Netanyahu still leads the opposition leaders in terms of suitability for prime minister, with a 17 percent advantage over Yair Lapid and a 10 percent lead over Benny Gantz. However, Naftali Bennett is seen as more suitable for the role than Netanyahu by the Israeli public, with 46 percent support compared to 39 percent for Netanyahu.

The poll showed the following results (excluding a party led by Bennett): Likud, headed by Netanyahu, would receive 22 seats; Yisrael Beytenu, led by Avigdor Liberman, would win 19; the National Unity Party, headed by Benny Gantz, would get 15; the Democrats, headed by Yair Golan, would also receive 15; Yesh Atid, headed by Lapid, would get 12; Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, would secure 10; Otzma Yehudit, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, would win nine; United Torah Judaism, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf and Moshe Gafni, would win eight; Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, would secure five; and Hadash-Ta’al, led by Ayman Odeh and Ahmad Tibi, would get five. The Religious Zionist Party and Balad would not cross the electoral threshold.

In the scenario where a party led by Bennett would run, it would receive 27 seats, overtaking Likud, which would then receive 20 seats. The Democrats would win 11; Yisrael Beytenu would secure 10; Shas and Yesh Atid would both win nine; the National Unity Party would secure eight; Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism would each get eight; Ra’am would win six; and Hadash-Ta’al would secure four.

A projection of how many seats each party would receive if there were elections today. (credit: Dall-E)
A projection of how many seats each party would receive if there were elections today. (credit: Dall-E)

Israeli public opinion on a strike against Iran, with or without US  support

The survey also examined public opinion on an Israeli strike against Iran. A majority of Israelis (55 percent) expressed support for an attack. Of these, 34 percent favor an immediate strike even without US approval, while another 21 percent believe it should take place only with American approval.

About 24 percent said Israel should wait for the outcome of negotiations between Iran and the United States, seven percent believe it is too late for an attack, and 14 percent are undecided. Among coalition voters, 56 percent support a strike even without US approval, compared with 34 percent among opposition voters, who prefer waiting for American approval.

The poll, conducted for Ma’ariv by the Lazar Research Institute, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with Panel4All, has a maximum sampling error of 4.4 percent.