In wars, as in politics, timing is everything. Victory often comes not with a parade, but with a quiet opportunity – a chance to consolidate gains, close the chapter, and pivot to long-term strategic advantage. History is replete with examples of nations that failed to recognize this moment. Today, Israel risks joining their ranks.

Since the October 7, 2023, massacre by Hamas, Israel’s stated objectives in Gaza have been clear: dismantle Hamas, recover hostages, and secure the country from future attacks. And while Hamas has not been fully eliminated, Israel has dealt it a crushing blow. 

Most of the group’s battalions have been dismantled. Much of its tunnel network has been destroyed. The Israeli military operates at will in most of Gaza, and the group’s leaders are in hiding.

Had Israel paused and pivoted months ago – after weakening Hamas and securing a partial hostage deal – it could have built on this military success to pursue a historic regional opportunity. A normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia was within reach.

Reports suggest that Riyadh was ready to condition recognition on an end to the war and the resumption of talks on Palestinian statehood, something that would have been transformative both diplomatically and for Israel’s global standing.

Israel might also have begun the gradual process of reintroducing the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza. Israeli critics of the PA often lump it together with Hamas, but this is a false equivalence. The PA is flawed, but it is a recognized international entity that cooperates with Israel on security and aspires to coexistence. 

IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon, November 25, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon, November 25, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
A year ago, with US backing and Arab incentives, Israel could have paved the way for a post-Hamas Gaza administered by the PA. Instead, by insisting on total victory and refusing to articulate a viable postwar vision, Israel now finds itself trapped in a war with no clear exit.

But the clearest and most alarming case of Israel failing to “take the win” is unfolding not in Gaza, but in Lebanon.

Political breakthrough in Lebanon

For about a year after October 7, Hezbollah had launched near-daily attacks across Israel’s northern border. But Israel’s massive counteroffensive of last summer and fall decimated the group, took out the bulk of its rocket threat, and reshaped the deterrence equation, enabling Lebanon to begin reasserting its sovereignty.

The result has been a political breakthrough: Lebanon’s parliament, after years of paralysis, elected a president. The new head of state, former army commander Joseph Aoun, is a centrist figure with strong ties to the West. The prime minister has stated unequivocally that the government is committed to the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, including the disarmament of Hezbollah and the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south.

These are monumental developments. For the first time in years, the Lebanese state is asserting itself against the dominance of Hezbollah. And yet, Israel’s response has been strangely self-defeating.

Despite agreeing to a ceasefire, Israel is holding on to five small points of territory inside Lebanon – positions that have little military significance but sufficient symbolic value to cause damage. This decision is undermining Lebanon’s fragile political progress and handing Hezbollah a gift-wrapped propaganda victory.

I recently shared a panel in London on the future of the Middle East at the Young Presidents’ Organization’s Geopolitics Summit, with Lebanon’s Ambassador to the UK, Rami Mortada, who was personally involved in drafting Resolution 1701 and remains deeply engaged in efforts to stabilize the border. Speaking on the sidelines, he voiced the frustration many in Lebanon’s new leadership feel.

“Israel’s insistence on holding on to occupation of Lebanese territories and striking throughout Lebanese territory makes no sense whatsoever,” he told me. “We are all watching in confusion and despair. We finally have a president and a government who have clearly stated that they are committed to transitioning toward state a monopoly of the use of force, and have fully deployed the Lebanese army south of the Litani River, where it became the sole guarantor of security. Israel’s actions achieve nothing beyond strengthening the opposite narrative.

“This is causing trouble for the government because the situation is delicate. We cannot understand why they won’t simply respect the terms of the ceasefire concluded last November and allow for the state to assert itself and for internal dynamics to unfold. This is a win for regional security no one should overlook or undermine.”

That question – why can’t they take the win? – echoes not just from Lebanon but from anyone who sees a moment of opportunity slipping away.

Making better political choices

History offers many cautionary tales. After defeating France in 1940, Hitler could have consolidated his dominance in Europe. Instead, he overreached in Britain and Russia, triggering his own downfall. 

In 1967, Israel stunned the world with its Six Day War victory – but rather than seeking peace, it entrenched an occupation that continues to haunt it. In Vietnam, the US had weakened the Viet Cong by 1968 but escalated anyway, losing public support and the war.

Today, Israel has military superiority and international backing. But its leadership is behaving as if it were 2006 again – pursuing maximalist goals, ignoring regional shifts, and dismissing the delicate balance that allows moderate Arab governments to work with it.

Hezbollah thrives on the perception that only it can defend Lebanon from Israeli aggression. When Israel disregards ceasefires and clings to slivers of land, it validates this claim. It weakens the very government now committed to disarming Hezbollah; perhaps the best chance in years to achieve what Israel has long demanded.

The alternative path is clear: Israel should immediately withdraw from the disputed Lebanese positions and support international guarantees for a strengthened Lebanese army presence in the south. It should work with the US, France, and Arab partners to build a framework for stability that includes Hezbollah’s disarmament over time.

In Gaza, it should pivot to a political process that includes the PA and Arab support for reconstruction – without illusions, but with strategy.

War, like politics, is not just about what you destroy, but what you build after. Israel has the rare chance to secure its borders, integrate regionally, and shift the dynamics with both Palestinians and Arab states. But first, it must recognize that the moment has come to stop, recalibrate – and for God’s sake, know when to fold ’em and take a win.

The writer is the former chief editor of The Associated Press in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East; the former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem; and the author of two books about Israel. Follow his newsletter, “Ask Questions Later,” at danperry.substack.com.